Gershon Baskin joins Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor), the nephew of the hostage Abraham Munder; Tal Schneider, a political correspondent for the Times of Israel; Michael “Mickey” Bergman, the CEO of Global Reach and the Vice President and Executive Director of the Richardson Center for Global Engagement and Ronnen Paytan in a discussion on th situation in the Middle East. Mickey discussed the ongoing struggle to secure the release of hostages in Gaza, with a focus on the role of the Biden Administration and the Israeli government. They explored various strategies to apply pressure on both sides, including leveraging the influence of other countries, targeting key decision-makers, and focusing on the legacy of the current President. The group also discussed the complexities of negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and the potential impact of recent events in Lebanon on the situation.
Hostage Crisis and Diplomatic Efforts
Zahiro, the nephew of Abraham Munder who was taken hostage in Gaza, shares his family’s struggle over the past year to secure the release of hostages. He expresses low hope for any progress until January when the new US president takes office. Gershon and Mickey introduce their efforts as part of a three-week initiative aimed at finding a solution, though details are limited due to audio issues.
Understanding Non-Government Entity and Hostage Negotiations
From 09:55 Mickey discussed the importance of understanding that their organization is a non-government entity, with a sole focus on returning hostages home. He outlined the theory of return from Gaza, which involved mediating between Hamas and Israel, leveraging the influence of countries like Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar, and making it an American priority at the Presidential level. He noted that this approach was successful for 54 days, but failed since then due to a lack of willingness on the Israeli Prime Minister’s side. Mickey also mentioned that they have an eager participant in the Biden Administration, but their willingness to intervene depends on their confidence in the outcome.
Gershon Baskin then introduced his initiative, which involved discussing a deal for the women, children, elderly, sick, and wounded from the second night of the war.
Negotiations and Agreements Between Israel and Hamas
From 14:29 Gershon discussed the complexities of negotiations between Israel and Hamas, highlighting the challenges faced during the 2021 Gaza war. He detailed the initial agreement to release Palestinian women and children prisoners, which was delayed due to military pressure. Gershon also mentioned his communication with Hamas and the Israeli negotiating team, expressing frustration with the latter’s response. He then revealed a new agreement, which was submitted to Hamas and approved by the leadership. The agreement, which was also shared with the White House, proposed a technocratic government to govern Gaza. Gershon also mentioned his communication with a significant Palestinian leader in exile to verify the agreement’s authenticity.
Urgent Gaza Situation and US Pressure Strategy
From 21:27 Gershon discussed the urgency of the situation in Gaza, emphasizing that the US cannot wait until January or November 5th to make decisions. He highlighted the importance of applying pressure on Biden, focusing on his legacy, and suggested that the US could force a deal on Netanyahu. Gershon also mentioned that the US has leverage over Israel and that the Americans need to verify the Hamas leadership’s willingness to form a technocratic government. Tal asked about the verification process, and Gershon confirmed that an American team in Doha could communicate directly with Hamas. Mickey then discussed a strategy to bypass Netanyahu and engage with the other side, emphasizing the credibility of Gershon’s contacts. He also expressed skepticism about the plan’s success and the need for a direct confrontation between the US President and Netanyahu.
Securing Hostages’ Release and Post-Election Dynamics
From 28:12 Mickey emphasized the importance of taking action to secure hostages’ release before January 20th, as the current President has flexibility to make decisions without political consequences. He noted that the window for action would expand after the US elections on November 5th, and then change again on January 20th. Zahiro agreed, expressing concern about the general public’s sense of despair and the perception that the Biden Administration has given up on the situation. Gershon and Tal also participated in the discussion.
Hamas Negotiations and Prisoner Exchange Strategy
From 31:17 Gershon stated that Hamas is not willing to make a separate deal for the American hostages and that the timing of the American election is not a significant factor. He also mentioned that Hamas is willing to be flexible on the prisoners’ issue, but only on the margins. Gershon recommended not to make the mistake of sending dangerous prisoners to places where there will be no oversight. He also expressed his belief that Hamas will not give up on the big names, including those who are serving life sentences. Gershon and Mickey also discussed the recent events in Lebanon and their potential impact on Hamas’s calculations. Gershon stated that he doesn’t think the events in Lebanon have changed Hamas’s calculations, and Mickey agreed, adding that Israel has a “disease” that needs to be addressed.
Israeli Mindset and Negotiation Strategies
From 36:42 Mickey discussed the Israeli mindset and its reluctance to negotiate, even when in a position of strength. He suggested that the Israeli government’s refusal to negotiate could be due to a belief that they are on a roll and should continue to apply pressure. He suggested that once a willingness to negotiate is demonstrated, all issues are resolvable. Tal asked if there was anything the hostage families could do to promote a plan, to which Mickey responded that while the families are doing everything possible, it’s not enough to change Bibi’s mind. Gershon suggested that the families should focus on getting a 3-week plan to the official track and put pressure on the Americans, Qataris, and Egyptians to clarify with Hamas.
Applying Pressure on Biden for Hostage Release
From 44:13, Gershon emphasized the importance of applying emotional and psychological pressure on President Biden to secure the release of hostages and end the war. He suggested that Jill Biden, who he believes can influence her husband, should be targeted for this purpose. Gershon also cautioned against celebrating Israel’s recent military success, as it may have negative repercussions in the region. Tal agreed with Gershon’s strategy of pressuring Biden for his legacy, but noted that it might be difficult to convince him. Mickey added that convincing Biden’s team, particularly Bill Burns, Jake Sullivan, and Brett Mcgurk, that a deal is doable and worth the fight with Bibi is crucial. He also confirmed that the 30 Day Plan is on the White House’s desks
Strategies for Convincing Hamas and Securing Hostages
From 50:19 Tal, Gershon, and Mickey discussed strategies to convince Hamas to relinquish control of Gaza and secure the release of hostages. Gershon emphasized the need for discreet verification of Hamas’ willingness to make a deal and suggested various pressure points the United States could use on Israel. Mickey agreed that media coverage is helpful in applying pressure on decision-makers. Gershon also suggested that the American Jewish establishment could influence the Biden administration. The group agreed to focus on the return of hostages in November, rather than the trauma of the Hamas attack on October 7th. They expressed their hope for a better turn in the situation and thanked Gershon and Mickey for their efforts.
Next Steps
1. Hostage families to reach out to Qatari, Egyptian, and White House contacts to push the 3-week plan through official channels
2. American Jewish organizations to rally support among left-leaning establishment to influence Biden administration on hostage deal
3. Hostage families and supporters to increase media pressure leading up to October 7th anniversary
4. Media teams to focus on positive hostage return footage for October 7th coverage rather than attack footage
5. White House team (particularly Bill Burns, Jake Sullivan, and Brett McGurk) to verify Hamas’ willingness to give up governance of Gaza
Transcript
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Ronnen Paytan: Okay. Good morning, everybody sorry for delayed
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Ronnen Paytan: starting.
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Ronnen Paytan: We are experiencing some
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Ronnen Paytan: productivity difficulties.
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Ronnen Paytan: But we would like to welcome you to the to the meeting today.
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Ronnen Paytan: We’re going to speak about the 3 weeks plan
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Ronnen Paytan: for ceasefire deal and hostage.
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Ronnen Paytan: which is exchange agreement
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Ronnen Paytan: with us will be today.
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Ronnen Paytan: and she should be joining momentarily. She has some difficulties
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Ronnen Paytan: to get connected.
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Ronnen Paytan: Is Tal Schneider.
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Ronnen Paytan: a political correspondent for the Times of Israel.
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Ronnen Paytan: and she’s going to be the meeting host.
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Ronnen Paytan: He will also introduce the speakers that are here with us.
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Ronnen Paytan: A few administrative notes for everybody. There is a Whatsapp group dedicated to the status of updates on the 3 Week Plan can see here on the screen the QR code
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Ronnen Paytan: so those of you would like to join it, for updates can just scan the the barcode the the QR. Code and join the the Whatsapp group.
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Ronnen Paytan: We’ll get you in, I guess, right after the the meeting here.
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Ronnen Paytan: Also, you could also join the the group through a link that should be
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Ronnen Paytan: in the meeting chat.
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Ronnen Paytan: or, if you would like, you could privately send your name and Whatsapp number or email
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Ronnen Paytan: to
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Ronnen Paytan: Shula
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Ronnen Paytan: through the the meeting chat. Send it to her. She will be able to get it to get it in, and make sure that you are going to get to the to the group.
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Ronnen Paytan: Throughout the the meeting you will be able to ask questions.
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Ronnen Paytan: Please direct them to Boz. You can see in parentheses after his name
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Ronnen Paytan: questions, so send them to him. He will organize all the questions
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Ronnen Paytan: so that
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Ronnen Paytan: we can get them answered later.
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Ronnen Paytan: The meeting is recorded, and a link to the recording will be posted
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Ronnen Paytan: to the Whatsapp group that I just mentioned.
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Ronnen Paytan: We are limited to 300 people. So in case that you know anybody that was not able to get in, let them know about the Whatsapp group where the recording will be posted later.
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Ronnen Paytan: So with that.
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Ronnen Paytan: those are the administrative notes for today.
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Ronnen Paytan: With that we would like to get started.
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Ronnen Paytan: I believe that I don’t see.
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Ronnen Paytan: but still was able to join us right then.
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Ronnen Paytan: So with that we’ll get started. I suggest that we’ll start with Zahiro. I will introduce him.
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Ronnen Paytan: 0
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Ronnen Paytan: is
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Ronnen Paytan: The the cousin of Abraham Munder.
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Ronnen Paytan: and
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Ronnen Paytan: he is going to to talk about his experience of the last year.
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Ronnen Paytan: What is it?
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Ronnen Paytan: It’s a hostage family
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Ronnen Paytan: member
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Ronnen Paytan: 0. Please
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Ronnen Paytan: please unmute yourself. Yes.
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Ronnen Paytan: then, could you please unmute.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Yes, I have unmuted.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Thank you, Ronan. A small correction. I’m the nephew of Abraham Munde. I’m also the cousin of Ruhi Munde.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Both died. As a result of the October 7th attack, William Munder was killed on the that same Saturday.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Abraham, my uncle, 79 years old, was taken to Gaza, where he survived in the tunnel for anywhere between 4 to 6 months.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): We don’t know for sure the date of his death, and he was brought back in a.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): His body was brought back last month, like 6 weeks ago, and
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): was buried in Rose
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): A.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): So ever since October 7.th I also have an aunt, a cousin, and and my cousin’s son, that came back during the 1st day of the Hostage Exchange.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): If
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): so, I found myself pretty much in in one of the front rows of the
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): struggle to release the hostages on, on very, on various
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): aspects and and spaces. And for the past
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): year.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): If
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): yeah, and it’s been a struggle, we are facing some forces that we
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): you know that we are part partly funding even
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): and
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): the current situation right now is that the level of hope is pretty low.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Okay, I don’t know how many of you have
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): have contacts in Israel, but I guess
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): quite a few of you. But
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): people are, especially in the families. We don’t see any hope in the, in the
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): any silver lining to the situation, the the general way of thinking right now. And I’m I’m generalizing, of course, but
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): nothing will happen until January, because
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): that the date that the President of the United States will be
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): sworn in, after all the different attestment that will probably be in the judicial system in America, so we don’t expect any
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): definite answer to January. And so let’s talk in Ja. January, because nothing will happen till then. And this is, you know, a dreadful, dreadful, a outcome in terms of
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): the lives of the hostages, of course, and we know that there are certain deals on the table ever since December even earlier. But let’s say, since December, since the end of the previous one, we know that these deals are being sabotaged by Israeli government again and again and again, although desperate efforts from everyone involved.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Now we do hope to find some
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): ways.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): some any way to for solution. And this we there is this 3 weeks initiative that maybe can bring us some
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): hope back into the the equation. Because if we want
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): have this, then the
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): then we have nothing to do till January. This is the general way of
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): thinking.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): and this is a
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): very sad, especially for me.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): So if there is a simple enough short enough catchy enough
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): an torpedo, a bell!
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Enough
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): plan we should pursue it in in all our efforts, and this is why I want to hear more from from the experts.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): so thank you very much. All for for coming and and hearing me, and and giving the chance to the other speakers to to speak out.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): and I’ll I’ll be here if if I don’t think
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): good question, any questions will will be directed to me, but if so, I’ll be more than happy to answer. Thank you all, and thank you, everyone, for.
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Ronnen Paytan: Think he was a hero.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Happen.
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Ronnen Paytan: Yeah, thank you. Zahiro. And I, guys, I would like to introduce tal Schneider, we’re able to overcome all the obstacles. So now we have Tal, we have Gershon, we have Zahiro, we have Mickey Tal to you.
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Tal Schneider: Hi! Hello, everybody! I apologize for my late arrival. I was having technical problems here. Thank you, Zahiro, for for what you just said. I’ll take it, I guess, straight to Gerson and Mickey. Maybe each of you can describe. In short, your effort. Have you know? What have you been doing? What is the you know, the strict you know. Aspect of our initiative, Gershan. You you may start first, st I think.
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Gershon Baskin: No, I think Mickey should start. I’m going. I’m in an airport in Prague. I’m going into a lounge now to be 10 min.
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Tal Schneider: Okay, so I’ll turn it to to Mickey. Mickey, can you present your initiative and efforts.
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Mickey Bergman: Yes, thanks, Tal. I don’t know if I can talk for 10 min, Gerson, so you might want to run to the, to the lounge.
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Gershon Baskin: I’m running.
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Mickey Bergman: You, Tal, and and thank you for starting us off as a hero. I know that in the in the audience there I’ve seen
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Mickey Bergman: names of other families of hostages, current hostages. So I again, 1st thing to say is just
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Mickey Bergman: sending you love and and hope, and and all the efforts to to bring your loved ones back home and bring this to an end.
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Mickey Bergman: I work for a for a non government, not for profit organization, a global reach. I used to work with the Richardson Center for global engagement, which
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Mickey Bergman: transitioning since the Bill Richardson has passed away over a year ago.
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Mickey Bergman: and beginning from October 7, th I’ve been working with an increasing amount of families.
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Mickey Bergman: The peak of it was about 67 different families that have reached out to us
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Mickey Bergman: the reason it’s important to understand that we are a non-government organization.
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Mickey Bergman: and it’s because, while we collaborate and coordinate with governments when it makes sense.
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Mickey Bergman: and our only fiduciary responsibility are the families.
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Mickey Bergman: We are like horses with blinders. It’s all about getting hostages home.
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Mickey Bergman: and the method that we always use is deploying. The 1st thing is is coming up with a theory of return.
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Mickey Bergman: which is the story or the script and the shortest pathway a hostage can come home, and we do this all over the world in different countries. But of course focused on Gaza
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Mickey Bergman: for the sake of this conversation and and the work since October 7.th
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Mickey Bergman: The theory of return from Gaza was quite simple, based on 3 assumptions.
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Mickey Bergman: The 1st one, as you all know, on this call Hamas and Israel do not talk directly. Therefore, any solution has to be mediated.
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Mickey Bergman: Number 2. That there were 4 entities in the Middle East countries that have influence over Hamas. None of them can control Hamas, and I know people like to say that people can control Hamas. Nobody can control Hamas. It’s an independent, proud Palestinian program, but there are countries that can influence them, such as Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar.
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Mickey Bergman: But none of these countries have any reasons to do favors to Israel.
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Mickey Bergman: However, at least a couple of these countries had interests in helping the United States, that is, Egypt and Qatar, and therefore the theory of return from October 7th was that we needed to make this an American priority at the Presidential level
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Mickey Bergman: in order for the mediators to have some leverage to go into Hamas and solicit proposals from them of how to resolve, how to bring hostages home.
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Mickey Bergman: And if those proposals are half decent, and I. I have to say there never are good.
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Mickey Bergman: and they never are. You know, something that you jump up and down and exciting for, but if they’re half decent.
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Mickey Bergman: Then the American Administration had to work with the Israeli Government to make them as comfortable as possible in order to sign and implement.
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Mickey Bergman: and this worked extremely well for 54 days, and I know that 54 days is too long. It’s 53 days too long.
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Mickey Bergman: but still for the amount of hostages that came back, based on that theory of return in 54 days is historic in terms of the numbers.
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Mickey Bergman: However.
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Mickey Bergman: we have failed since day 54,
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Mickey Bergman: and the failure for my experience has not been because of a lack of a proposal.
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Mickey Bergman: The failure has been because of a lack of a willingness on the Israeli Prime Minister’s side to actually do this.
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Mickey Bergman: and the failure, the collective failure of myself and everybody else is that we have not yet come up
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Mickey Bergman: with the one thing that will figure out how to change Bibi’s political calculation on this and get the government of Israel on board.
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Mickey Bergman: That’s a little bit of the background. Overall. Tal. I have been engaged in several efforts in several angles on this, I have to say, and we can talk about it a little bit later. We do have a and those who know me know that I don’t say that
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Mickey Bergman: about the Biden Administration on any other hostage countries that I deal with. But when it comes to Gaza we actually have a participant, an eager participant.
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Mickey Bergman: and to see this resolved, and to see hostages back home. Whether they’re whether they’re willing to jump in in a in A
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Mickey Bergman: in a direct conflict with Bibi Netanyahu depends on their level of confidence that that conflict will lead
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Mickey Bergman: to the agreement that will bring back hostages. I’ll I’ll stop here for a second. I see. Gershon is sitting already in the in the lounge, so he can introduce his
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Mickey Bergman: his initiative.
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Tal Schneider: So, Gershon, are you? Are you okay? Can you start.
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Gershon Baskin: Start.
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Tal Schneider: So just go ahead and introduce the way you see your proposals.
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Gershon Baskin: So I
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Gershon Baskin: I want to start from the very beginning, because it’s important to put this all in perspective.
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Gershon Baskin: From the second night of the war. I was talking to my contacts in Hamas about a deal
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Gershon Baskin: for the women, the children, the elderly, the sick, and the wounded.
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Gershon Baskin: I immediately on day 3 found out that there were 39 Palestinian women prisoners, including administrative detainees, and there were 190 teenage prisoners, including 20 who were administrative detainees. None of them had murdered Israelis, none of them were from Gaza. They were all from the west bank and East Jerusalem.
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Gershon Baskin: None of them were important Hamas people. From the moment that the War Cabinet was appointed, I was communicating indirectly with Benny Gantz, and got the Eisenquot to ask them if they were willing to push through a deal
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Gershon Baskin: for what was obviously the low hanging fruit from Hamas I understood that they were willing at least the women and children to release because they had no intention of taking them initially. I just want to point out that this deal was cooked very quickly. It was really easy to do. It was a. It was a low cost deal for Israel. Hamas wanted to get rid of them. The deal was delayed by 2 and a half weeks because of military pressure.
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Gershon Baskin: Everyone who says that military pressures release them. I was sitting with the Intelligence Officer in the Egyptian Embassy on the day that they were expecting to receive a list of names of all the women and children that they were going to release, and that was the day that the Idf. Announced it surrounded the city of Gaza.
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Gershon Baskin: and then the deal was frozen for 2 and a half weeks, until the Qataris and the Egyptians managed to push it forward. It is so ridiculous the nature of negotiations that I provided the Qataris with the telephone numbers of Benny Gands and Benny with the telephone number of the Qataris
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Gershon Baskin: on the night when the 2 is ready we’ll be released from Egypt.
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Gershon Baskin: I got a phone call at midnight from the Egyptian Intelligence asking me for the telephone number of the International Red Cross Office in Tel Aviv. I mean, this is how absurd this whole situation is that I had to give the Egyptians the International Red Cross to arrange the release of the 2 women
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Gershon Baskin: they’ve been negotiating now for 3 months, for what was from the time that Biden presented it, what I thought a bad deal.
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Gershon Baskin: a deal that takes 2 periods of 6 weeks minimum to implement with 32 hostages being released in the 1st stage, or that’s what’s been reported with so many problems in the deal that it could go wrong at any moment with Netanya was saying from the outset
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Gershon Baskin: that he remains, Israel retains the right to renew the war after the 1st 6 week period.
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Gershon Baskin: Biden said in his press conference that once the ceasefire began it would continue into a second week ceasefire, even if there’s no agreement.
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Gershon Baskin: But everyone knows that Biden is not telling the truth from Bibi’s mouth. This was Biden’s way of twisting Bibi’s arm. There was no intention of nothing else to ever implement the agreement. I’ve seen the text of the negotiated agreement that’s been going back and forth. It takes into the level of detail that you, just looking at it, understand that no one wants to reach an agreement here.
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Gershon Baskin: So about 3 weeks ago, 3 and a half weeks ago, I don’t remember exactly when I got a phone call from some of the families, and from yossimilate.
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Gershon Baskin: and from us. Some other people asked me if I could talk to Hamas and see if they’re willing to make another deal.
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Gershon Baskin: I picked up the phone and I sent messages to 7 members of the Hamas Political Bureau. The Shura Council
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Gershon Baskin: and 3 of them returned to me and told me you’re in contact with Ozzy Hamid already for years to talk to him.
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Gershon Baskin: and Razi made contact with me. I’ve been negotiating Hamid for 18 years now, starting with a week after Gilad Shalit was abducted throughout 8 years of lior lockdown and go on bloom to release the bodies of the 2 Israeli soldiers and 2 Israeli civilians
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Gershon Baskin: during 8 years negotiated indirectly with Simar through Razi Haman. So I asked Razi about 3 and a half weeks ago if Hamas would be willing to make a deal to end the war. In 3 weeks Israeli withdraw from Gaza an agreed upon release of Palestinian prisoners, names and numbers and all the hostages.
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Gershon Baskin: he said, give me a couple of days, I’ll check.
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Gershon Baskin: 3 days later he came back to me and told me the leadership agrees. I asked him the whole leadership. Also. He said the whole leadership agrees because he’s a member of the Shore Council, a member of the Poly Bureau.
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Gershon Baskin: a member of the negotiating team, working very closely with Khalil Khayah, who is Samar’s deputy, was sent out of Gaza before the war in order to be the head of the negotiating team from Hamas. Aside as he moves between. Mostly now between Cairo and Doha. He’s in Doha most of the time. He sometimes goes to Beirut.
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Gershon Baskin: but he’s sort of a roving diplomat meeting with the Qataris meeting with the Egyptians on a regular basis.
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Gershon Baskin: And when Rossie said that this was okay. I told him that I was gonna work with the families and try and build pressure
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Gershon Baskin: after about a week or 10 days I I communicated with the Israeli negotiating team
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Gershon Baskin: and obviously in Israel. And I got back responses, official responses from the negotiating team, just simply saying that Netanyahu just want to end the war.
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Gershon Baskin: I was amazed by that response, and I and I said to, You know there are 3 negotiators, so this is one of them. I don’t want to disclose his name.
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Gershon Baskin: but I said to him, to the best of my knowledge, there’s more than one decision maker in Israel. There’s the Cabinet. There’s the Government, there’s the Knesset, and the people are the sovereign. What do you mean? There’s Netanyahu doesn’t want to end the war, he said. He’s the decision maker. I said, Yeah, but you’re the negotiators, and your job is not to be. Yes, men, but to present alternatives.
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Gershon Baskin: I got very frustrated. I went to the media all over the world. I did 100 interviews in a week all around the world, in Israel, in Palestine, in the Gulf all over, and then I got a phone call from Amirang Levin, who said, Gersham, come, let’s meet. Let’s try and do something together. We agreed that Amiron would write a text that I would submit to Hamas so that we would just have Razi.
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Gershon Baskin: We also had a voice message from Razi saying that the leadership agrees to it. It wasn’t just my communication and and a written text that you sent me, but with Amir, and we wrote a text together, submitted it to Hamas. It went through 3 versions. What you’ve all seen in the text is the final version that was agreed to by Hamas, and they stand by it.
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Gershon Baskin: When I transmitted this to the it got transmitted to the Amir of Qatar, to the Prime Minister Qatar to the head of intelligence in Egypt.
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Gershon Baskin: it got to Netanyahu’s hands. He sell through the negotiators and through Amiram
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Gershon Baskin: and
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Gershon Baskin: I agreed with Amiram that we would get 12 days of quiet and 12 days of quiet past, and then I told them, Let’s go public, and we went public again.
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Gershon Baskin: Well, this is more or less where we are. After going public. I got inquiries from the White House from the West Wing.
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Gershon Baskin: who wanted to know what happens on the day after the war. So then I communicated with. He sent me this message, saying, Hamas is ready to
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Gershon Baskin: turn over the governance of Gaza to a a technocratic professional government which would be in charge of all governance, including the borders and security.
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Gershon Baskin: I communicated with a significant Palestinian leader who’s in exile, not Muhammad Tahman, but somebody supported by Tahman
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Gershon Baskin: in in order for him to verify with Hamas his own context in Hamas that this is true, and this gentleman, who, I think, is a potential future leader of Gaza, at least in the temporary government.
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Gershon Baskin: communicated with Hamas, and said, what you said to Gershon is not enough. I want to know about internal security and your weapons, and the message that he got from a very senior member of the Politburo was. Yes, we’re talking about turning over internal security matters and the weapons to the new government. This has been communicated now to the White House. Now my analysis of where we stand today
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Gershon Baskin: is that, as opposed to what was said in the opening remarks, it’s
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Gershon Baskin: we cannot wait till January. We cannot wait till November 5.th This has to be done now. This is in the hands of the White House right now. Brett Mcgurk, Roger Karsten, the guy from the military who’s working on the negotiations told me that the man who makes the decisions on this, and the call on this for the President is Bill Burns.
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Gershon Baskin: I don’t know how to get directly to Bill Burns, the head of the CIA. But he’s the man who can most influence their main concern is what I said the day after, who’s going to govern Gaza that Hamas won’t be in charge of Gaza.
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Gershon Baskin: and my analysis, and what people have said to me is that Burns and Brettmiger are so heavily invested in the negotiations that they’ve been carrying on for 3 months that it’s really difficult for them to pass it along to something new. And this is very typical. Mickey probably knows this as well. There’s so much ego involved in these negotiations. I’ve witnessed things over the last 18 years. That reminds me of a kindergarten classroom, the way that people behave when it concerns matters of life and death, and this is matters of life and death. Now
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Gershon Baskin: my belief is that we need to apply extreme pressure on Biden, and the pressure on Biden has to be about his legacy. Biden, who was an excellent President for the United States, is going to go down in history as genocide Joe
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Gershon Baskin: as the president of the Gaza War, when he has an option now to go down in history as the man who entered the Gaza war and freed the hostages. And this is the tactic that I think that we need to apply in the United States now, with extreme pressure around Biden. In the Democratic party people care about Biden, Biden’s wife, and other people who surround him in the White House and help him make decisions.
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Gershon Baskin: This is the only way, I think, that we can influence matters quickly. The Americans can force this deal on Netanyahu. I noticed today 20 points of leverage, and I’m sure we can come up with 100 points of leverage that the United States has over Israel. I’m sure that the Americans don’t need me to give them a list of points of leverage that they have over Israel. If there’s a determination of Biden, the kind of don’t that, he said to Iran. He needs to tell to Netanyahu. Now you’re going to make this deal, and you have no choice in the matter.
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Gershon Baskin: You’re on mute, Dom.
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Tal Schneider: Can you hear me now?
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Gershon Baskin: Yes.
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Tal Schneider: Okay, Kirsten, can I ask you? One of the things that you told me couple of days ago is that the American administration needs to independently verify
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Tal Schneider: the fact that the Hamas leadership in Gaza is willing to go into technocratic government for the day after and and that’s that’s where they’re at at the moment. Do you know if they were? If they are, if they’re able to verify that, can they proceed? Can they? Can they go along with your plan.
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Gershon Baskin: What I know is that they have an American. There’s an American team in Doha who can communicate directly with Hamas.
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Gershon Baskin: It’s difficult. They can do it through the Qataris. They can also communicate through the Egyptians. What I’ve said all along to everyone is, don’t believe me. I’m no one. I’m not a representative of Israel. I’m not a representative of Hamas. I’m a independent citizen. They need to verify all this information that I’m giving them because it’s serious. And there’s
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Gershon Baskin: there’s written backing. And this voice message backing to it. So they need to play. Push this forward. And really it’s the Americans who need to do it. It can be done. So we talked with some of the families today, maybe worthwhile. The family is making a trip to Qatar and meeting with the Prime Minister there, and pushing the Prime Minister to verify. I don’t know what level they’ve done. Verification. I do know
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Gershon Baskin: that this is on the desk of Brett Mcgurk and Bill Burns. I know that they have it. I’ve been told that they have it.
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Tal Schneider: Okay Mickey back to you? Can you put the outline of what you propose, or what you were trying to work on
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Tal Schneider: as much as you can elaborate.
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Mickey Bergman: It.
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Mickey Bergman: I can in general terms, but I don’t want to distract you from from the 3 Week plan, because that’s really the agenda that that is relevant to this conversation. But over the last several months, especially since we recognize that Bibi Netanyahu is the has been the obstacle
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Mickey Bergman: to get hostages home, and we have failed continuously to change his calculation, or to get him to a corner where he has to.
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Mickey Bergman: and to look differently. We have looked and started to look for a while on a pathway that bypasses
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Mickey Bergman: Netanyahu
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Mickey Bergman: and the authority of the President of the United States to do that is because they are American citizens
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Mickey Bergman: over there.
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Mickey Bergman: and the approach and the logic and the strategy behind it was not to abandon the rest of the hostages not at all, but in order to unlock
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Mickey Bergman: the stalemate that we have on the larger deal, for that we have engaged initially, indirectly.
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Mickey Bergman: and lately, directly we know what the other side wants for this, and there’s a lot of skepticism about this. I’ll have to be honest on all sides.
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Mickey Bergman: but that again. It’s not. It’s not something that distracts, it’s not something that is
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Mickey Bergman: replacing Gershon, who I know of since the from the days of the Gilatch elite
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Mickey Bergman: negotiations and mediation. His contacts are proven.
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Mickey Bergman: and the reliability and credibility of these contacts are proven. So I don’t have any doubt
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Mickey Bergman: that what was communicated to Gershon, and what he’s communicating out is accurate.
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Mickey Bergman: Now things change, and there’s windows that close and and events, and we’ve seen what happened
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Mickey Bergman: in our little region just in the last week. But there is no doubt about the credibility of this and the intention of this. There is still a looming question of how we move Bibi Netanyahu. Into this Gershon presented his answer, which is, it has to be a direct confrontation between the President of the United States and Netanyahu. I believe Gershon is probably accurate about this. I’m not sure about our ability
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Mickey Bergman: to bring that confrontation to being just by saying, You know that you know Joe Biden wants this for his legacy. We we need to convince the Americans
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Mickey Bergman: that this is a credible, and there’s some things that still need to be worked out
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Mickey Bergman: in that
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Mickey Bergman: in that effort now as a hero, for for on your comment, I do think
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Mickey Bergman: I do not think that waiting for January 20, th
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Mickey Bergman: not only from a family’s perspective. Politically, it’s not the correct answer. On this. We have a President who is not running for reelection.
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Mickey Bergman: He has some flexibility, even though he is responsible for his Vice President’s ability to campaign and not sabotage that. But he does see this
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Mickey Bergman: as his own legacy. He has instructed his team
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Mickey Bergman: to do what needs to be done in order to get hostages back home. Now that team is struggling to put something that is credible in front of him, and that’s kind of the battle that we have.
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Mickey Bergman: and I’ll I’ll say a little bit more.
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Gershon Baskin: Yeah.
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Mickey Bergman: That window between now and January 20th actually becomes even bigger in a month.
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Mickey Bergman: Once there are elections in the United States. Whoever wins the elections.
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Mickey Bergman: then we have a President of the United States that has no consequences
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Mickey Bergman: for for his ability to step in and be bold and take risks.
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Mickey Bergman: because whoever won the the elections is going to be President and not him. So there is a window that is currently already open. It opens even wider on November 5, th
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Mickey Bergman: but then it changes, doesn’t close, but it changes, and we don’t know how it changes in January 20, th and none of us, especially hostage families, returned hostages, and those who are fighting for this don’t have the luxury to wait and see how it changes.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): I completely agree. By the way, I’m just telling you that
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): the the general way of thinking now amongst us is of despair.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): because
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): the the families, you know, amongst the families and and and general public that I also meet is this is what everyone is saying. I completely agree. This is an opportunity. We have an opportunity here. But
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): but
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): people don’t believe this.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): We have heard some, some some not not rumors, some information, some some data that as if the Biden Administration has quote unquote, given up on this situation.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Okay? And this is what we are trying to fight
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): together.
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Zahiro Prem (a.k.a. Shahar Mor): Yeah.
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Tal Schneider: Okay, there is.
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Gershon Baskin: Wanna make
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Gershon Baskin: comments if I can. Just about what Mickie said.
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Tal Schneider: Yeah, I wanted to to. There was a question here. I thought maybe we should go.
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Gershon Baskin: You’re on mute.
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Tal Schneider: I can’t see the questions while it’s.
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Gershon Baskin: Let me just say 2 2 quick points.
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Tal Schneider: Let me just read you. Maybe the question and you can, and you can. You know, in the same, in the same sentence. Just also. You know. Answer the question that is coming, I think, from do you think that the Israeli commitment to end the war and withdraw from Gaza Strip, as part of this plan will influence Hamas to get more flexible on their prisoner releases demands.
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Gershon Baskin: Okay, I’ll answer that question first.st I spoke to Hamas about a separate deal for the American hostages. The living in American hostages. Hamas said, no, there’s no chance. They’re going to do it. They were approached by the Russians. They were approached by Colombia and other countries also, and they won’t make a separate deal. So I think that’s off the table, and I understand the reason why to try and approach it. But
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Gershon Baskin: I think it’s a waste of effort and energy. The second thing is with regard to the timing of the American election and all. Let’s face it. Kamala Harris is going to lose votes. If Biden releases the hostages
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Gershon Baskin: and puts pressure on Israel, she may lose some Jewish money, but she won’t lose Jewish votes. The Jews who are going to vote for Harrison are going to vote for Trump.
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Gershon Baskin: and nothing’s going to change that. So election calculations are a very small part of the tie right now, and that has to be impressed upon Biden’s office. He doesn’t have to worry about Kamala. She doesn’t want to inherit this war. This war is no good for her campaign, and she doesn’t want this on the desk if she is elected.
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Gershon Baskin: With regard to the price, the one issue that Hamas has communicated, that they’re willing to be flexible on is the prisoners, but their flexibility is on the margins.
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Gershon Baskin: They have a list of big names, and I don’t know how many, but Israel has been demanding the right to veto 65 of them in the negotiation, 60 to 65 of them Hamas presented an alternative which is to talk about categories. The prisoners who are serving 25 years and longer, or 65 years older, prisoners who are dying of cancer prisoners. They wanted to deal with. That’s the way Hamas works. They deal with categories, they deal with principles, they refuse to give them vetoes to Israel.
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Gershon Baskin: My own recommendation from hindsight on the shitty deal is not to make the mistake that was made in the shitty deal of sending dangerous prisoners to places, whereas you’ll just have oversight over them.
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Gershon Baskin: A lot of prisoners were sent to Gaza, and shouldn’t have been sent to Gaza from the west bank in 2014, Israel rearrested 68 of the Hamas of the Shalit prisoners when they were thought to be dangerous, and there was no problem with them rearresting them. I imagine that the big names that Israel will want to deport, probably to places like Doha. That includes the the biggest murderers. Hamas is not going to give up on them the the 2025, 30, 40 of the
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Gershon Baskin: 599 prisoners from before October 7, th who are serving life sentences.
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Gershon Baskin: Those are the ones that Hamas wants to free more than anyone else, and they include mostly Hamas people and jihad people, also some Patak people, but 559 murders from before October 7, th and we’re not talking about everyone who was taken before October 7.th
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Gershon Baskin: There are an estimated 14,000 Palestinian prisoners today in Israel.
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Gershon Baskin: and I don’t know how many of them include the ones who were taken out of Gaza. It’s probably several 1,000 more of the ones who were taken out of Gaza.
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Tal Schneider: Okay, both Gerson and Mickey. Do you think that the last couple of days in
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Tal Schneider: in Lebanon, in Beirut
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Tal Schneider: have changed reality for Hamas for putting more pressure on Hamas. Is there a chance that we can see something? I mean, Netanyahu basically said that yesterday, I think in his statement that he sees now a new reality. Gerson, I see you.
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Gershon Baskin: I don’t think it changes Hamas calculations at all. I talked to some people in Lebanon also believe that even Hezbollah, in their disarray is going to continue fighting Israel. They’re not going to surrender. There won’t be a ceasefire. Hezbollah’s conditions will remain the same when the war in Gaza ends, they will end at least as we’re talking today. That’s the perspective on
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Gershon Baskin: what people in Lebanon are saying with regard to Hamas and Gaza. Sumar is not going to surrender and forget it. And people think about sending sumwar abroad. Ghazi Hamid, when I asked him, is there any chance that Samwar would leave Gaza.
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Gershon Baskin: he said, Gershon Gaza is the sea, and sunwar is a fish, and a fish never leaves the water. There is a chance, I believe, that some of the Hamas leadership in Gaza would leave. That might be part of their calculation after what’s been going on in Lebanon. But Sunwar is going to fight till the end.
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Gershon Baskin: or till there’s a deal. I don’t believe that Sumwar has any illusions that he’s going to live a long life, and he’s going to try and kill as many of us as he can until he finds his death. Now, what will be the fate of the hostages? I fear very much
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Gershon Baskin: that if Israel does find Siboren kills him.
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Gershon Baskin: that it could risk the lives of all the other hostages, I think that Hamas, in an act of desperation, will do what they did 3 weeks ago to the 6 hostages who were executed when the Israelis were on their tail.
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Tal Schneider: Hi, Mickey, the same question. Do you think there is a change now with what happened in.
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Mickey Bergman: Yeah, no, thank you. I’ll say 3 things hopefully. I can remember them through, 1st of all, a little bit less about the hostages. But a comment all around. Israel has a little disease.
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Mickey Bergman: In decision making
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Mickey Bergman: sorry to say that when we suffer losses, whether it’s in Gaza or in Lebanon.
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Mickey Bergman: and there’s conversation about negotiations.
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Mickey Bergman: The mantra is, oh, we can’t negotiate now because we’re in the port spot of weakness. We need to. We need to keep fighting and turn it over, actually hold successful. Tactical, as big as they are. Moments
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Mickey Bergman: and and people come to them all. Let’s negotiate now. The Israeli mindset is, oh, we’re on a roll. Don’t stop on a roll, let’s keep going.
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Mickey Bergman: And, in other words, there’s never a a genuine understanding that you need the whole point of using violence.
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Mickey Bergman: If you choose to to use it is in order to get yourself in a position where you can get a better political position right now in Lebanon, Hezbollah is a little discombobulated. Iran is contemplating their what they want to do.
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Mickey Bergman: and instead of actually going for a bilateral, not a UN resolution, a bilateral agreement between the government of Lebanon, who wants to be forced to do an agreement with the government of Israel, and rid themselves of this of this situation.
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Mickey Bergman: We’re just keep pound, we. We’re going to keep pounding.
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Mickey Bergman: and that’s Number one, and I know it’s not hostage directly, but all
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Mickey Bergman: hold. Suspend your belief for a second here. Number number 2, a
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Mickey Bergman: Hamas and Gershon knows it, and and I know it from the Gilach elite years on this. Gershon described it extremely well. Hamas doesn’t. He’s not going to negotiate down.
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Mickey Bergman: They’re going. There’s flexibility in the margins absolutely. And there’s different things on the categories, things that can be can be dealt with. But this whole conversation about categories and these murderers and the other murderers.
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Mickey Bergman: Let’s be honest about this. Okay.
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Mickey Bergman: every single one of these things are excuses not to make a deal. They exist. The existence of the state of Israel is not going to be endangered
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Mickey Bergman: if a certain murder in a similar category is sent to a different country and another country.
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Mickey Bergman: and the point is, once we cross a a threshold that there is a willingness to do a deal. All of these issues are resolvable. They’re not easy, but they’re resolvable.
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Tal Schneider: Let me keep
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Mickey Bergman: One second, let me, because it’s it’s it’s important on this for me.
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Mickey Bergman: The whole concept of Bibi Netanyahu over a year of saying, Oh, we just apply more military pressure on Hamas in Gaza they will be flexible.
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Mickey Bergman: has backfired.
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Mickey Bergman: We knew that it will not work, because that’s not how Hamas thinks it’s not how they see the world. It’s not their objectives in this. So to your question now, I’m getting to the actual answer, all the events, whether it’s in Lebanon, Nasrallah. Now in Yemen, all of these kind of
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Mickey Bergman: the pagers, all of these things that feels like Israel is coming back.
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Mickey Bergman: The question is not whether it will change Hamas’s position.
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Mickey Bergman: The question is whether there is a way to use it to change Bibi’s position
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Mickey Bergman: from a place that he thinks now that he’s on the upper hand.
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Mickey Bergman: and he probably in the next poll, will have 40 seats in the Parliament.
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Mickey Bergman: Can he feel confident enough to go towards a deal that his own coalition is threatening. I don’t believe they’ll do it, that they’ll bring him down for this.
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Mickey Bergman: but he can win elections by himself because he just delivered this huge strategic success in his mind for Israel. And last, I agree absolutely with Gershon. Getting Sinwar’s head on the table means that all 101 hostages are dead.
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Tal Schneider: Yeah, Mickey. hostages. Families are asking, is there anything we families could do that will help promote the plan.
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Mickey Bergman: I think the hostage families
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Mickey Bergman: have
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Mickey Bergman: and are doing
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Mickey Bergman: everything humanly possible
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Mickey Bergman: both in Israel.
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Mickey Bergman: I see them here in the United States. We work closely through the different forums on this, and I know what the organization that is hosting this is doing, and all these efforts in Israel. And I wish I had an answer of something more that can be done
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Mickey Bergman: right now, when Bibi is looking at the calculation, he’s not counting these families or their hostages. He doesn’t count the large protests. It doesn’t mean that those protests needs to stop. They have to continue, and the more we can do them the better. But that is not the single thing that will
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Mickey Bergman: change Bibi’s mind on this. And so I wish I had a better answer. Keep doing what we’re what you’re doing. Keep building that continue with that Israeli consensus on this. And but I I’m not sure that this is on the
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Mickey Bergman: hey.
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Mickey Bergman: It’s not.
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Mickey Bergman: It’s not something that the families and so many of them I talked to many times. It’s not something that they’re not doing that are failing their loved ones. There’s a larger political failure there, with leadership in Israel.
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Tal Schneider: I guess, Gershon, the same question for the families, and also, I may add, you know, according to what Mickey said.
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Tal Schneider: if the Netanyahu is the obstacle.
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Tal Schneider: Is there a way to give him some sort of
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Tal Schneider: political stability
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Tal Schneider: in the Israeli side
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Tal Schneider: in order to get the hostages out? I mean.
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Tal Schneider: I’m sure pretty many, many of people here would agree to just, you know, sign.
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Tal Schneider: you know. Just take another year to take another 2 years, that if you get can get the hostages out.
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Tal Schneider: Take 3 years, you know. Take a decade. We don’t care just as long as you get the people out.
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Gershon Baskin: Yeah, I think there’s a
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Gershon Baskin: we. You could build a scenario for Nathaniel, which is a win.
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Gershon Baskin: which is getting the hostages home and having Hamas not rule Gaza anymore. That would be a big win for Netanyahu. We could. He could
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Gershon Baskin: banner this all over the world that he succeeded in bringing down Hamas and brought back to hostages. But that’s that’s not the focus, I think, for me. At least, I think what the families need to do is to get this 3 week plan to the official track, and I think that the families have the contacts to the Qataris, to the Egyptians and to the White House, and this is where the pressure needs to be put. Now
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Gershon Baskin: it has to go beyond this zoom call and the side room talk of a deal that might be on the table, and we have to put the deal on the table. It’s got to go through the official channels. We have to force the Americans to clarify with the Qataris and the Egyptians. We have to force the Qataris and the Egyptians to clarify with Hamas, and we have to make this circle complete, so that it’s done through the proper channels, and not as some, the private civilian initiative, or even the initiative of the families
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Gershon Baskin: and the other thing is, of course.
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Gershon Baskin: finding the the pinpoints that pressure Biden, I suggested today
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Gershon Baskin: in a phone call that we had earlier, Jill Biden, we have to get to Jill Biden. She’s person who can influence him about his, his legacy.
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Gershon Baskin: And and this has to be. I really think that this man
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Gershon Baskin: who has so much dignity. He’s he’s an old guy, and he wants to know how he’s going to be thought of in history. I think history is important to him.
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Gershon Baskin: his track record. He doesn’t want to be remembered as Genocide Joe and Gaza War Joe.
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Gershon Baskin: So this is really really important. And I think that, using this emotional psychological pressure on him
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Gershon Baskin: to do the right thing to get the hostages home and end the war is really where we can have a success.
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Gershon Baskin: and they have the ability to pressure Nathaniel to do it.
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Gershon Baskin: Israel is so dependent on the United States. Let’s face it.
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Gershon Baskin: Israel might be riding high in the sky. Now, after the assassination of Hezbollah, I want to also caution us not to
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Gershon Baskin: rally around the flag and cheer the trumpets of victory. We don’t know what the repercussions of what happened in Lebanon are going to be, and how many people are going to be killed. We’ve already seen hundreds of innocent people killed in Lebanon, and that’s not going to play well for Israel in the region, not in Jordan, not in Egypt, not even in the emirates.
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Gershon Baskin: So this is not the end of the story of killing Nasrallah and his and his supporters and allies in Lebanon. This should not be seen immediately, as a great victory for Netanyahu. We don’t know how many Israelis are going to pay with their lives for it as well. God forbid.
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Tal Schneider: So, Gershan. What I’m hearing from from you in the last couple of days, and also right now on the conversation
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Tal Schneider: is I mean it. It seems to me that you believe that we need to put a lot of pressure on Biden
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Tal Schneider: for his legacy.
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Tal Schneider: so so to the public, you know the families here, but also the general public.
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Tal Schneider: you expect them to just kind of, you know. Put pressure on Biden to the corner
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Tal Schneider: and maybe have some.
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Tal Schneider: you know, prominent people from the Jewish organizations or other groups in the United States. Put the same pressure on Biden as you as you just portray.
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Tal Schneider: You’re right.
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Gershon Baskin: I think I think you need to talk to the democratic leadership.
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Tal Schneider: And how would you expect.
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Gershon Baskin: Nancy Pelosi.
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Gershon Baskin: I I don’t know how that the families have a lot of tools.
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Gershon Baskin: 1st of all, they have the the most moral message in the world. No one has a higher moral ground than families and the hostages, and I think that that has to be utilized to the utmost. You all have your your strategic advisors and pr advisors, and and we need to get the best buying schedule and figure out how to influence Biden.
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Gershon Baskin: Think of the push that was made after the debate of all the people who tried to get Biden to stand down from the elections. There were a lot of people who he respects, who he listens to.
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Gershon Baskin: We he got around them, and they spoke to him, and they convinced him to do the biggest, the most difficult thing he’s done in his life.
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Gershon Baskin: And now this is the second most difficult thing he’s gonna have to do in his life, because he’s gonna have to put pressure on the state of Israel. I’m beginning that to meow. But this is a real win for him.
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Gershon Baskin: But.
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Tal Schneider: But, Nikki, you can also answer that that goes a bit against Biden’s interest at the moment, because they they’ve known for a while. Now that, you know.
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Tal Schneider: being in conflict with Netanyahu right before election
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Tal Schneider: for Biden and for for harvest, it’s not good. So I mean, whatever you know, Gershon is expecting everybody to put the pressure on Biden, but it’s almost impossible.
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Mickey Bergman: I want to make a little nuance here, because I think it is true that we want Biden, one of probably one of the only ways to convince Bibi to go for a deal is through a pressure from the from President Biden. I agree with that.
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Mickey Bergman: I don’t want us to mischute here, because we’re miscalculating.
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Mickey Bergman: It is not up to us to convince Biden
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Mickey Bergman: what is good or not good for his legacy.
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Mickey Bergman: Biden wants that. He’s convinced
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Mickey Bergman: that that is not the argument that is needed, because you’re you’re preaching to the choir, even being the choir on this, he wants that.
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Mickey Bergman: Okay. The point of Biden that needs to be convinced him, and his surrounding, and Bill Burns is the key, and Brett Mcgurk are the key. I wish Roger Carson was much more in it. But Roger Carson’s
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Mickey Bergman: is not inside the strategic negotiations of this. He’s a good friend and a dear guy.
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Mickey Bergman: But this is Bill Burns, Jake Sullivan, and Bert Mcgurk.
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Mickey Bergman: The linchpin here, is not about convincing them of why, it’s good for Biden, and why it might be good politically.
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Mickey Bergman: It is
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Mickey Bergman: convincing them that this is doable
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Mickey Bergman: in a high percentage that is worth their fight with Bibi. They have been battered and beaten down
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Mickey Bergman: in the battle with Bibi.
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Mickey Bergman: And there, what we’re hearing from them now publicly is lowering expectations. It’s not lowering their commitment.
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Mickey Bergman: Okay, if they are convinced. And that’s why I think what Gerson is doing and making sure and knowing that. And I can confirm the the 30 Day Plan is on. The I know it from this week is on the desks in the White House. Not sure about Bill Burns, but I’m pretty sure about Bill Burns as well. The CIA. Okay.
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Mickey Bergman: if they are convinced
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Mickey Bergman: that this has a likelihood of success. They will pick the fight.
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Tal Schneider: My preference.
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Mickey Bergman: Tell them how.
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Tal Schneider: So. So I’m going back to Kershan on this. I’m sorry for the Ping Pong, but, Kirshan, when Vicky says they will pick the fight, and you say that they can put more pressure on Bibi.
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Tal Schneider: Can you be more specific? What type? What can they do? I mean, he is the man in power here in this government. He doesn’t. He’s not, you know. He’s not going to be replaced at the moment.
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Tal Schneider: What can they do
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Tal Schneider: in order to convince him to go along.
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Gershon Baskin: Yeah. 1st of all, they need to verify. As I said, that Hamas is in the game.
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Gershon Baskin: and Hamas is willing to give up the governance of Gaza. This is essential. Without that they’re not going to go to bat. This is, for sure. So this is something that we need to figure out how to get verified because Hamas plays against itself here Hamas won’t come out and say it, Hamas, by admitting they’re willing to make this deal believe that they’re weakening their position in negotiations.
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Gershon Baskin: So when the Ronin Bertman calls not Ronin, his colleague in the New York Times calls ashamed
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Gershon Baskin: and says, What about this 3 week deal, Rossi said. It’s not official when I have a fight with Rossi immediately after the phone call with the New York Times and says that we can’t admit it because it weakens our position. This is just absurd. So it has to be discreet through the back channels and through the direct contacts. That’s the 1st thing. The other thing is. As I said, I sat down for half an hour this morning
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Gershon Baskin: and made a list of 20 different pressure points of the United States on Israel, and and it goes from things as simple as strategic dialogue and training Israeli pilots in Texas to to the big, heavy ones that they’re not going to use like the veto and the Security Council and
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Gershon Baskin: holding back weapons and financial support. But there are things very simple things that the Americans know how to do. I think back to George Bush, the father and the loan guarantees with a simple word that we’re going to reassess the relationship. That was also a word that Kissinger used way back when a reassessment of the Israeli American relationship sent shockwaves in Israel.
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Gershon Baskin: There are
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Gershon Baskin: simple things announcing that the United States Tax Department is going to conduct a review of all the 501 c. 3 tax deductible organizations that support the state of Israel. These are statements that don’t even change policy, that send shockwaves. And there are tens of these kinds of things that the Americans do do to apply pressure 1st behind closed doors and then publicly, if needed.
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Gershon Baskin: is that there’s a whole series of categories, meetings between Israeli officials who come to the United States sanctions that they’ve already imposed on settlers can be imposed on. More settlers can be imposed on on different political factions and leaders. Bank accounts a million different things, that
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Gershon Baskin: the relationship is just so deep and wide between the United States and Israel that their diplomatic toolboxes, you know, they usually only take out their carrots when it comes to Israel. But the United States has a lot of sticks in that diplomatic toolbox, too.
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Tal Schneider: So both Mickey and and Gerson. You’ve been doing it for many years, but Mickey also, you have experience from, you know, worldwide situations. Do you think if the media is delving? If the media is you know, obsessed in a good way, if the media is, you know, on that all time? 24, 7. Is it helpful, or can it be hurtful to to the situation.
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Mickey Bergman: My experience and not specifically on Gaza on this, of doing this for 18 years now
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Mickey Bergman: absolutely helpful.
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Mickey Bergman: It doesn’t increase the price. It doesn’t do whatever Bs government officials tell you it does in order to prevent it. It only does one thing.
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Mickey Bergman: It applies pressure on decision makers to point to find a solution and get a decision made and bring people home.
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Mickey Bergman: Leadership.
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Gershon Baskin: Yes, and you agree.
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Gershon Baskin: 100%.
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Tal Schneider: And Gershon. Do you do you think that the Israeli media is covering your initiative properly? Or do you think.
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Gershon Baskin: You know it.
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Tal Schneider: No, no.
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Gershon Baskin: No, I I think that bringing on Amir Levine was good because he has a lot more credibility than I do. I’m just on peace, Nick, and bring in some more of these generals on board who have more legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of the Israeli public. You’ll get more media attention as well.
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Tal Schneider: Okay, can I get, you know, probably just one or 2 min from each of you to sum up
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Tal Schneider: the situation where we at at the moment. And what do you think should should be done? I mean we we heard it along the conversation for both of you. But can you sum it up so we can take, you know, like a concise you know things for action. You know, to do list. What do you think.
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Gershon Baskin: The one thing that we didn’t talk about. And I know that people were talking about this earlier in the chat is, if there’s a role for American Jewry, American Jewish establishment here, vis-a-vis, the Biden administration. I know that. You know Bibi has made this a very divisive issue in Israel. I’m sure that it’s divisive within the American Jewish community as well.
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Gershon Baskin: but nonetheless, I think that
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Gershon Baskin: the the part of the American Jewish community with influencing the White House, and the Democratic party is on our side
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Gershon Baskin: and not on Netanya’s side, and I think probably more work can be done to rally support amongst American Jewish establishment on the
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Gershon Baskin: left side of the political map to influence Biden.
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Gershon Baskin: Okay.
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Tal Schneider: Mickey.
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Mickey Bergman: I would say 2 2 things, 1st of all, in Israel.
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Mickey Bergman: all the pressure that needs to happen from the public now, especially in what appears to be. I want to use the term that I tell you know I use in different chats on this one this moment of national emergence of pride in the death of others. Can we leverage that in a position in which we’ll convince Bibi to actually go into settlements and say, we’ve succeeded. We peaked.
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Mickey Bergman: Now, now it’s time to do deals, and we can’t do deals without hostages.
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Mickey Bergman: That’s in Israel in the United States. You’re right again, I would say, we need to increase the pressure here, but the pressure needs to be increased by communicating the likability, the fact that it is credible, and the fact that it is possible
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Mickey Bergman: to bring hostages home. The trend that is, that is out there is that, and we see it all over. Social media is like, well, even if Israel wanted, Hamas is not going to do it. Lie. Okay, we have a deal on the table. It is possible, and yes, the Jewish community, United States, please all the Jewish organizations in the United States. We’re a week away
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Mickey Bergman: from October 7, th
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Mickey Bergman: October 7th is going to be the one window of opportunity to get the the public attention back to this.
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Mickey Bergman: And I’m telling you, October 8, th attention is going to go back to the Presidential election here, and so.
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Gershon Baskin: I’m with you.
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Mickey Bergman: A week to do that.
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Gershon Baskin: And what I would suggest is that if the media is going to be used on October 7th around the world in Israel and the United States
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Gershon Baskin: that the focus should not be on the Hamas attack on October 7, th but on the return of the hostages in November.
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Gershon Baskin: those emotional scenes of the hostages being freed is what we should be playing up on October 7, th and not to review the trauma of October 7.th But the celebration of the victory of hostages coming home.
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Tal Schneider: Okay. Gershon, Mickey, the rest of the listeners, families of the hostages, the hostages themselves. We just
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Tal Schneider: you know. We want everybody home as soon as possible. And
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Tal Schneider: and we just, you know, keep on on waiting and dreaming and and praying for that. So
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Tal Schneider: I want to thank you all for being here definitely. We’re not going to have
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Tal Schneider: You know. I can speak for myself. We’re definitely not having a nice social Shana
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Tal Schneider: this year. As long as this thing is ongoing
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Tal Schneider: we can hardly celebrate, we can hardly breathe. Our arts goes out to the families and to the hostages themselves. So let’s let’s hope for a better turn and and thank you, Gersh, and thank you, Mickey, for all you’re doing. It’s
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Gershon Baskin: Thanks for Saul.
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Tal Schneider: Incredible.
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Ronnen Paytan: Thank you, Todd, so much for joining us today. It’s really appreciated.
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Ronnen Paytan: And guys, thank you so much. Please stay tuned with our group.
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Ronnen Paytan: We are going to continue to move forward, plan
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Ronnen Paytan: and notify you through this group. Thank you so much.
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Ronnen Paytan: Thank you.
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Boaz Atzili (Questions): Thank you.
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Boaz Atzili (Questions): I guess you best will stay to wake up.
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Boaz Atzili (Questions): Shall shall I go to share.
