VAUSE: To Jerusalem now and Gershon Baskin is a former hostage negotiator. He joins us now live. Gershon, thanks for being with us. We appreciate your time.
GERSHON BASKIN, FORMER HOSTAGE NEGOTIATOR: Thank you.
VAUSE: Realistically, from your experience, from what you know, how close is a deal between Israel and Hamas for the hostages and for a ceasefire.
BASKIN: You know, these things are completely unpredictable because it could be a sudden change in position of one of the sides that allows it to reach an agreement. In the case of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, he was held in captivity for five years and four months.
There was a proposal on the table six months after he was abducted, but it took another five years before the parties were willing to agree to it. And we don’t have five years now. We have a matter of days perhaps weeks before there is Israeli ground defensive in the Rafah area where there are one and a half million Palestinians packed. It will be catastrophic.
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And all efforts need to be done in order to avoid that attack and to achieve a ceasefire. But the parties seem reluctant to make an agreement with Hamas didn’t send a delegation. The Israeli delegation was instructed by the Prime Minister not to present an Israeli initiative to go there and listening, which is a very bizarre way to carry out negotiations. And it seems that Netanyahu is more committed to the war effort than he used to bring in the hostages home.
VAUSE: As far as Hamas is concerned, they’ve only used the hostages as a way of winning a pause on negotiating a pause in the fighting and a chance to regroup. Let’s assume a deal does happen. And all the Israeli hostages are released. Is that then the beginning of the end for Hamas for this war? So they if that’s the case, why would they do it at this point, and will they go for broke?
BASKIN: The Hamas proposal that they put on the table last week was in three phases and implementing it if Israel were to accept it as essentially agreeing that all the hostages would be released, all the Palestinian prisoners would be released, and Hamas would remain in power in Gaza.
It’s a complete surrender of Israel to the demands of Hamas and completely unacceptable. It’s clear why Hamas made those demands because they want to continue to rule Gaza and they believe that they will continue to rule Gaza, but it’s unacceptable to Israel.
Any kind of deal that will leave Hamas in place and release prisoners who Israel considers very dangerous to Israel’s security.
VAUSE: According to a statement from the Egyptian government during negotiations, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, emphasize the keenness to continue consultation and coordination between the two countries, indicating there’s not been a deal so far.
But, you know, the two countries he’s referring to is Egypt and Qatar, we also have the United States, which is really pushing these talks forward. All them, to your point earlier seem to want to do a lot more than the Israelis and Hamas. So how do you get a deal when the main parties aren’t really interested?
BASKIN: I think that the possible breakthrough for a deal is if the mediators can convince the Hamas to separate phase one of the deal from phase two and three of the deal, in other words, implement a 45- day ceasefire, release the civilian hostages, women, children and wounded people in exchange for a large number of Palestinian prisoners, but less of those who are serving life sentences that Hamas is dealing — is demanding.
That would give a 45-day period to continue on negotiations, and perhaps come up with a diplomatic solution that would include ending the war and the Hamas leadership exiting the Gaza Strip voluntarily to another country like Qatar.
This is something that might be possible. I wouldn’t put a lot of money on it. But it is the one area where I see the possibility for a breakthrough.
VAUSE: What’s driving the timing here is the ongoing hostage negotiations driving the timing of the Rafah offensive or as the Rafah offensive driving the timing of the hostage negotiations.
BASKIN: I think it’s a bit of both. Right now the Israeli army is working on a plan, which the Prime Minister demanded on the evacuation of the Palestinians or most of them from the Rafah area. This is almost impossible to imagine, with so many people there and no place left to go.
They’re already in a 20 percent of the Gaza Strip in the southern corners of the Gaza Strip. And it’s hard to imagine how you can move a million and a half people in order to wage a war offensive.
So, I think that the army is being cautious right now in terms of submitting its plan and being very careful in order not to have massacres take place and in Rafah area. The Prime Minister, I don’t know what his concerns are with regard to the offensive. They seem to have destroyed most of the Gaza Strip already. And the Israeli government doesn’t seem to be particularly bothered with the possibility of destroying the rest.
VAUSE: Gershon, thank you for being with us. I should mention that you are key to the release of the Israeli soldier, Gershon Baskin, who was held by Hamas for five years so you know of which you speak. Thank you, sir, for being with us.
BASKIN: Thank you.
