How Close is a Deal Between Israel and Hamas For The Hostages and for a Ceasefire

John Vause :

VAUSE: To Jerusalem now and Gershon Baskin is a former hostage negotiator. He joins us now live. Gershon, thanks for being with us. We appreciate your time.

GERSHON BASKIN, FORMER HOSTAGE NEGOTIATOR: Thank you.

VAUSE: Realistically, from your experience, from what you know, how close is a deal between Israel and Hamas for the hostages and for a ceasefire.

BASKIN: You know, these things are completely unpredictable because it could be a sudden change in position of one of the sides that allows it to reach an agreement. In the case of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, he was held in captivity for five years and four months.

There was a proposal on the table six months after he was abducted, but it took another five years before the parties were willing to agree to it. And we don’t have five years now. We have a matter of days perhaps weeks before there is Israeli ground defensive in the Rafah area where there are one and a half million Palestinians packed. It will be catastrophic.

[01:05:10]

And all efforts need to be done in order to avoid that attack and to achieve a ceasefire. But the parties seem reluctant to make an agreement with Hamas didn’t send a delegation. The Israeli delegation was instructed by the Prime Minister not to present an Israeli initiative to go there and listening, which is a very bizarre way to carry out negotiations. And it seems that Netanyahu is more committed to the war effort than he used to bring in the hostages home.

VAUSE: As far as Hamas is concerned, they’ve only used the hostages as a way of winning a pause on negotiating a pause in the fighting and a chance to regroup. Let’s assume a deal does happen. And all the Israeli hostages are released. Is that then the beginning of the end for Hamas for this war? So they if that’s the case, why would they do it at this point, and will they go for broke?

BASKIN: The Hamas proposal that they put on the table last week was in three phases and implementing it if Israel were to accept it as essentially agreeing that all the hostages would be released, all the Palestinian prisoners would be released, and Hamas would remain in power in Gaza.

It’s a complete surrender of Israel to the demands of Hamas and completely unacceptable. It’s clear why Hamas made those demands because they want to continue to rule Gaza and they believe that they will continue to rule Gaza, but it’s unacceptable to Israel.

Any kind of deal that will leave Hamas in place and release prisoners who Israel considers very dangerous to Israel’s security.

VAUSE: According to a statement from the Egyptian government during negotiations, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, emphasize the keenness to continue consultation and coordination between the two countries, indicating there’s not been a deal so far.

But, you know, the two countries he’s referring to is Egypt and Qatar, we also have the United States, which is really pushing these talks forward. All them, to your point earlier seem to want to do a lot more than the Israelis and Hamas. So how do you get a deal when the main parties aren’t really interested?

BASKIN: I think that the possible breakthrough for a deal is if the mediators can convince the Hamas to separate phase one of the deal from phase two and three of the deal, in other words, implement a 45- day ceasefire, release the civilian hostages, women, children and wounded people in exchange for a large number of Palestinian prisoners, but less of those who are serving life sentences that Hamas is dealing — is demanding.

That would give a 45-day period to continue on negotiations, and perhaps come up with a diplomatic solution that would include ending the war and the Hamas leadership exiting the Gaza Strip voluntarily to another country like Qatar.

This is something that might be possible. I wouldn’t put a lot of money on it. But it is the one area where I see the possibility for a breakthrough.

VAUSE: What’s driving the timing here is the ongoing hostage negotiations driving the timing of the Rafah offensive or as the Rafah offensive driving the timing of the hostage negotiations.

BASKIN: I think it’s a bit of both. Right now the Israeli army is working on a plan, which the Prime Minister demanded on the evacuation of the Palestinians or most of them from the Rafah area. This is almost impossible to imagine, with so many people there and no place left to go.

They’re already in a 20 percent of the Gaza Strip in the southern corners of the Gaza Strip. And it’s hard to imagine how you can move a million and a half people in order to wage a war offensive.

So, I think that the army is being cautious right now in terms of submitting its plan and being very careful in order not to have massacres take place and in Rafah area. The Prime Minister, I don’t know what his concerns are with regard to the offensive. They seem to have destroyed most of the Gaza Strip already. And the Israeli government doesn’t seem to be particularly bothered with the possibility of destroying the rest.

VAUSE: Gershon, thank you for being with us. I should mention that you are key to the release of the Israeli soldier, Gershon Baskin, who was held by Hamas for five years so you know of which you speak. Thank you, sir, for being with us.

BASKIN: Thank you.

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John Vause

John Vause

John Vause is a multi-award winning journalist for CNN International. Based at the network’s headquarters in Atlanta, he currently co-anchors ‘CNN Newsroom’ from 12-2am ET on CNNI. For the past 25 years Vause has traveled the world, reporting from more than 30 countries, and has been based in Atlanta, Beijing, Jerusalem, Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland, Canberra and Los Angeles. He has seen firsthand the devastation caused by some of the world’s biggest natural disasters: Earthquakes in Haiti and China, bush fires, floods and typhoons. He was one of the last reporters to interview former Pakistan PM Benazir Bhutto, returning to Karachi after she was assassinated. Previously based in Los Angeles, Vause has anchored some of the biggest stories in recent years on both networks including the Arab Spring, the Japan earthquake and tsunami, the death of Kim Jung Il and the U.S. government shutdown. He also continues to report from the field, most notably covering the Israel-Hezbollah war from both Gaza and Jerusalem in 2014. He previously served as CNN’s correspondent in Jerusalem followed by an assignment as senior international correspondent based in Beijing, where he was responsible for covering China and the region. He was there for all the controversy surrounding the Beijing Olympics, winning an Asia TV award for his reporting. He was the first reporter to debunk false claims then presidential candidate Barack Obama attended a madrasah in Jakarta. In the Middle East, Vause reported from the front lines of the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, winning an Edward R. Murrow award. He was the last reporter in Gaza after the Israeli pullout in 2005. He was there in Ramallah when Palestinian Leader Yasser Arafat fell ill and later died, and he was there in Jerusalem when Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was left incapacitated after suffering a stroke. When Palestinian suicide bombers launched a concentrated campaign against Israel in 2002, Vause was there. He was also in the middle of the Israeli military campaign which followed, and was in Bethlehem for the 39-day long siege of the Church of the Nativity, His reporting of these events earned him the “Journalist of the Year” award from the Atlanta Press club in 2003. When the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was killed by a U.S. airstrike in 2006, Vause was the only international reporter who visited the scene. He spent months traveling through Iraq at the start of the U.S.-led invasion, but unlike many reporters he was not embedded with coalition forces and was one of three anchors for CNN International based in Kuwait in the months leading up to the invasion. He was one of the few journalists who reported from New York on the 9/11 attacks, then traveled to Pakistan and then to Afghanistan for the fall of the Taliban. Vause has been there for Presidential inaugurations, Democratic and Republican National Conventions, Bill Clinton’s impeachment, the death of John F. Kennedy, Jr., mass shootings in U.S. schools and gala awards from the Oscars to Grammys. He’s interviewed Presidents and Prime Ministers, movie, music and sporting stars – but mostly ordinary people who do extraordinary things. Vause holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in American history from the University of Queensland.

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