Netanyahu’s “total victory” strategy is based on continuing to kill Palestinians in Gaza, including some of the remaining Hamas political and military leaders. No doubt that he has instructed the army to find and kill Mohammed Sinwar (Israel always needs an ultimate enemy figure to hold responsible for what the enemy does). A new addition to the Israeli “strategy” is to threaten to annex pieces of Gaza to Israel permanently in order to persuade Hamas to release hostages, with or without a deal. Israel is still talking about a negotiated deal for some of the hostages – living and dead in exchange for a negotiated list of Palestinian prisoners, but believes that Israel can secure the release of hostages without a deal.
Netanyahu’s strategy is based on the grand mistake of thinking that Hamas works under the same logic as Israel and will give in to this kind of pressure. Hamas’s official messages continue to say that in exchange for ending the war and Israel withdrawing from Gaza, they will release all of the hostages. This message has been the same for months. Of course, we have no way of knowing if Hamas will in fact ever release all of the hostages or even if they know where all 59 Israeli hostages are located. But that is not a reason not to make a deal with Hamas to release all of the 59 hostages. Israel would only release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages released and Israel always has the possibility of returning to fighting in Gaza, even if there are international guarantees that it won’t.
When have international guarantees are international law ever prevented Israel from doing what it wants to do? What Israel and Netanyahu fail to realize is that Hamas is not very likely to give in to this kind of Israeli pressure. With their backs against the wall, Hamas is much more likely to use their own pressure on Israel – as they have threatened to do several times over the last year and a half – to execute Israeli hostages. Hamas will not surrender under Israeli pressure. Hamas could reach an agreement with the Arab countries and with other Palestinians to end their control over Gaza. They could agree that Hamas political and military leaders leave Gaza – but not as a result of Israel pressure and threats, but rather as part of a deal with the Arab countries and other Palestinian leaders.
Hamas could even agree to end their armed struggle in Gaza as part of that agreement. But they will not do it as a result of Israeli military pressure or Israeli threats to annex Palestinian land. In that case, they will enforce their steadfastness and resist with greater resolve, even carrying out the threat to execute Israeli hostages. That is the part of Netanyahu’s strategy which is not taken into account and if it is, then Netanyahu probably believes that if Hamas executes Israeli hostages, Israel will have the moral right and the greenlight from Trump to finish the job in Gaza – which means killing a lot more Palestinians and taking full control over Gaza including the forced evacuation of Gazans. How will the Israeli public respond if Israel’s strategy leads to the execution of hostages?
We don’t know and hopefully we won’t have to know. But thisa should not be erased as a very possible scenario.
