1. Hamas got the message from Israel through Qatar to avoid the chaos we witnessed last Thursday. Today the three Israeli hostages were released quickly in an orderly fashion. Hamas demonstrated clear control of the scene and ensured that the release and transfer to the ICRC happened safely and without delays.
2. Those of us watching the release of the Israeli hostages should make sure to notice the extensive damage all around the site and all over Gaza. Hamas may be able to make a strong show of their control, but the people of Gaza have witnessed the destruction all around them and hold Hamas responsible, along with Israel of course. One Gazan friend I spoke with when I asked will the people who returned to the north of Gaza and have seen that they no longer have a home, a neighborhood or anything still standing now rise up against Hamas. The response was that as long as there is no viable alternative in front of them, rising up against Hamas is suicide. We saw Hamas execute and beat Gazans who opposed Hamas in the streets for all to see and be aware that it could be their fate as well if they try to rise up against Hamas. If we expect Gazans to rise up against Hamas, there must be a viable, preferable alternative clear and present for them to support.
3. On Monday the negotiations on Phase 2 of the deal are support to being and to end by day 30 of the first 42 day ceasefire. This deal happened only as a result of President Trump telling Netanyahu that he wanted this off of his desk when he enters the Oval Office. That happened, with the firm determination of Steve Witkoff who with a clear demonstration of Presidential power made sure that Israel, Hamas and the mediators get the deal done – and it was. Netanyahu will be in the White House on Tuesday. Stage 2 is much more complicated because it potentially puts Netanyahu on a collision course with Trump, if Trump remains firms on this determination until now to see that the war in Gaza comes to an end. Netanyahu still refuses to end the war and to withdraw from Gaza and Smotrich is still vowing to bolt the coalition if stage 2 is agreed to. In this case we could see Netanyahu planning a provocation, either in Gaza or in the West Bank or East Jerusalem, that could lead to Hamas breaching the ceasefire in which case Netanyahu would tell Trump that Israel must respond. But if that happens, the fate of the remaining 67 Israeli hostages will be in jeopardy. The ceasefire is already very fragile.
4. Given the fragility of the ceasefire and the current deal, we must continue to pressure all the parties to speed up the implementation and not draw it out for the remaining 24 days of phase 1 and the 42 days of phase 2. It can be done a lot faster and it must be done faster.
5. The question of who rules Gaza is key to ending the war and the full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. If Hamas remains in control of Gaza there will be no reconstruction. Hamas knows this as well as all of the parties that are expected to pay billions for the reconstruction. The question of who rules Gaza is first and foremost a Palestinian issue. The Palestinian Authority says that it will take over control of Gaza. While the PA will apparently be taking over control of the Rafah crossing with the EU support from EUBAM, very few actually believe that the PA is capable of taking control of Gaza or that Hamas would agree to the current PA taking control. The one person I know who is willing to lead a new temporary government in Gaza is Dr. Nasser Alkidwa, the former PLO Ambassador to the UN, former Minister of Foreign Affairs in the PA, former President of the Yasser Arafat Foundation, nephew of Yasser Arafat, formerly headed a list for the election in. May 2021 that Abbas canceled which was supported by Marwan Barghouthi and Fadwa Barghouthi, Marwan’s wife, was number two on that list. But Alkidwa cannot establish a civil, professional, technocratic governing council in Gaza without being appointed by Abbas, and he will only accept the job if he is independent from Abbas. Alkidwa believes that within 24-36 months of a new governing council in Gaza, organically linked to the PA but independent from it, the Palestinian people must go to elections for a new government for the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza as one united territory.
6. There is no military victory over Hamas, that should be clear to all. The are no winners in this war. We have all lost. Victory will only be achieved politically when we have new leaders (in Israel and in Palestine) and we are on a clear path towards the implementation of the two states solution, because until Palestinians are free and the occupation ends, Israel will never have real security. Those who think that Trump will deliver Saudi normalization to an Israeli government that refuses to end the occupation and allow Palestinians to be free, do not understand Saudi Arabia or the commitment of Mohammed Bin Salman to bring the Israeli Palestinian conflict to an end. The Saudis initiated and are running the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two States Solution. The formed the Alliance in September 2024 and 90 countries have participated in 4 meetings so far of the Alliance with the next meeting schedule for February in Egypt. They are serious about Palestinian statehood as are all of the Abraham Accord partner states as well. They all agree that the Gaza war must be the last Israeli-Palestinian war. For that to happen, we need to get rid of our current leaders and make sure that our new leaders are capable of not only looking back to “what they did to us” but are also capable of looking forward to ensuring peace and security for the 7 million Israeli Jews and the 7 million Palestinian Arabs living on the land between the River and the Sea.
