We had scheduled an interview with Israeli political activist Gershon Baskin on July 30. After the approximately 40-minute interview, I thought, “This is undoubtedly the most striking sentence.” Twenty-four hours later, news came that the head of Hamas’ Political Bureau Chief, Ismael Haniyeh, had been killed in Tehran, Iran, and chaos ensued. This was not just the death of a charismatic leader. It also meant an increase in the question marks regarding when the Gaza War, which had left nearly 40,000 Palestinians dead over 300 long days, would end.

Some of you know Gershon Baskin as Israel’s senior hostage negotiator, some as a journalist, some as an opponent, some as an activist, and some as a researcher on the Israel-Palestine peace process. He had played a mediating role in the release process of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who had been held by Hamas for over five years, in 2011.

Following the latest assassination news, the region became even more chaotic. In this exceptionally long period, which usually seems relatively short, we reached out several more times to learn his perspective on new developments. Baskin says the chance of a ceasefire is now very slim. Israelis have yet to grasp the seriousness of recent events fully, but there is still a possibility for peace. He harshly criticizes Netanyahu. The interview starts right here.

“If Rabin’s Efforts Had Succeeded, We Wouldn’t Be at This Point Today”

We are discussing assassinations. I will undoubtedly ask about the latest assassination and its effects, but can we start from a different angle?

Let’s begin…

I will mention a possibility. If former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin had not been assassinated in 1995, could Israel be a different country today? After all, Rabin targeted the radical right-wing of his time, which is comparable to the current government. If Israel had been led by someone like Rabin instead of the extreme right-wing government in recent years, would events have reached this point? Or is this a naive question?

We could be in a completely different situation. Of course, the outcome of such a historical game is unknown. We cannot predict what Rabin would have done had he lived. However, he was on the path to making peace with the Palestinians. Had he succeeded, we would be in a situation very different from today. The winners of the Rabin assassination are the people currently sitting in the Israeli government.

Gershon Baskin has been researching the Israel-Palestine conflict and the peace process for years. Before October 7, he worked on peace initiatives between Israelis and Palestinians for about a year. Baskin describes himself as a social and political entrepreneur and serves as the Middle East Director at the International Communities Organization (ICO). / Photo: Tamir Kalifa, The New York Times

“Ceasefire Chances Decreased, Netanyahu’s Term Extended”

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an assassination in Tehran, Iran, and Fuat Shukr, a senior Hezbollah figure, was killed in an assassination in Beirut, Lebanon. Let’s discuss another possibility. Has the chance of a ceasefire for the Gaza War become extremely difficult now?

The chances of a ceasefire were already very slim before the assassinations. But now, this possibility has decreased.

So, conversely, the likelihood of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu staying in power has increased…

Yes. Following the assassinations in Lebanon and especially Iran, Netanyahu, whose public image had declined, will rise in the polls. Both situations could have severe consequences. These recent events will bring many casualties. Israel is currently awaiting military responses from Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran. Possible retaliation could target the West Bank, East Jerusalem, Gaza and Lebanon.

“Israel Is Only Thinking About Revenge, New Target Is Sinwar”

Are Israelis currently aware of how serious the situation is?

Let me rephrase your question. Do Israelis realize how crazy our situation is? For days, we have been expecting a coordinated Iranian-Hezbollah-Hamas retaliation attack against Israel. Tensions are rising. Moreover, this situation is happening by Israel’s own choice. We have over 300 days of war experience. Israel’s working method is straightforward: take as much revenge as possible, destroy as much of Gaza as possible, kill all fighters with little regard for civilians, and carry out tactical assassinations that change nothing on a strategic level.

It was like this in the past, too, right? I mean, this path is not new for Israel…

Yes, Israel’s targeted assassination policy, used for many years, is Israel’s way of operating in this war as well. Whether it’s Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, or wherever else… In my view, Netanyahu’s latest game is that the war in Gaza will not end as long as Hamas’ Gaza Strip leader, Yahya Sinwar, is alive.

You mentioned this when we first spoke. So now, you say that one of the four prominent names for Hamas leadership after Haniyeh is currently on the target list?

Yes. Sinwar is currently the primary target. And it doesn’t matter how many Palestinians are killed to reach him. It doesn’t matter how many hostages in Israel are killed, either. According to Netanyahu, they are expendable. They have been sacrificed and continue to be sacrificed every day. What we all need to understand is that these policies are being carried out by Netanyahu and his gangster ministers and advisors, who constantly push him to escalate tensions and kill more. We all need to understand that there are other options as well.

What are these options?

One option is to make a deal and bring the hostages home. There is the option of knowing that the war on the Israel-Lebanon border will end on the same day the war in Gaza ends. There is the option of working with the international community — the US, UK, France, and others — to effectively implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 or find another reliable diplomatic solution. There is the option of working towards formalizing a regional defence alliance with Israel’s Arab neighbours. This alliance emerged on April 14. This regional defence alliance would include normalization steps with Saudi Arabia in exchange for ending the occupation and allowing the Palestinian people to determine their fate. The regional agreement would encompass security, self-determination for Palestinians, mutual recognition, stability, economic development, cross-border regional cooperation, national pride, and human dignity. These options are real. However, none of them will be considered unless we rid ourselves of our war criminal prime minister.

“The Reason We Haven’t Gotten Rid of Netanyahu Is Our Political System”

Why has the opposition still not managed to overthrow Netanyahu? Why can’t Israel rid itself of Bibism?

The main reason is the structure of our political system. Netanyahu enjoys a majority in the Knesset with 64 seats out of 120. To replace Netanyahu, form a new government, or go to elections requires a coalition member to vote against the coalition in a confidence vote or in a vote to dissolve the Knesset and go to elections. And since Netanyahu is held hostage by the more extreme elements in his government, he gives them everything they want. No reason exists for anyone in the coalition to vote against the alliance. That’s why it’s not easy to overthrow the government. It might be possible regarding the law for the conscription of ultra-Orthodox because there is no agreement on this, and there is significant public pressure to conscript young ultra-Orthodox due to the war. However, the Knesset is now on a three-month recess, the longest in the last 19 or 20 years of this war, which is incredible!

“The Opposition Doesn’t Inspire Confidence in Voters, No Mass Protests on the Streets”

Okay, these are concrete and numerical data. I want you to expand your perspective more subjectively. In one of your articles, you examined why Gantz, Lapid, and Eisenkot have yet to emerge as leaders and described them as so-called leaders. What is the reason for this? Has Israeli politics become doomed to empty slogans?

Yes, I think so. Today, no leaders in the Israeli political arena offer any vision or hope for tomorrow. Lapid, Gantz, and Eisenkot are saying more or less the same things as Netanyahu. The only difference is that they are less corrupt and more credible than Netanyahu. However, this is not enough to rally the public around them. No one presents a vision of a secure Israel living peacefully with its neighbours. No one is using the word peace. No one is talking about negotiations. No one is mentioning the two-state solution discussed globally. All they talk about is defeating Hamas. Therefore, they are all on the same page regarding where they want to take Israel in the future. And that’s why the masses are not supporting them. There aren’t a million Israelis protesting against the government on the streets. There are only a few hundred thousand supporting the hostage families, calling for a ceasefire, and demanding elections. The majority of Israelis still have not taken to the streets.

“What to Expect from Someone Describes Himself as the Greatest Jewish Leader Since Moses?”

Recently, I spoke with Yossi Alpher, a former advisor to Barak. Even though he doesn’t support Netanyahu, he described him as the most intelligent leader in Israel and the world. When I spoke with former Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami, he told me that Netanyahu is a kind of prisoner of his far-right government. How would you describe him?

Yes, Netanyahu is intelligent. But I do not believe he is the most intelligent politician we have had. He is a good politician but needs to be a statesman. He is not a leader with a vision for Israel. He places his political interests above everyone else. Before October 7, Netanyahu described himself in private circles as the most outstanding Jewish leader since Moses. Still, he will be remembered in history as one of the worst leaders the Jewish people have ever had. He is a narcissist. He is the wrong person. He creates division and is most concerned with himself. He is corrupt and needs to be removed.

“The Palestinian Issue and the Lame Duck Period in the US”

How will the US elections determine the fate of the Gaza war? If Kamala Harris moves into the White House, would it be realistic to consider a two-state solution, or is even thinking about it a fantasy?

If Harris wins the election, the period between the elections and January 20, the new year, the outgoing president can do whatever he wants without political concerns. This was the time when Reagan recognized the PLO and when Obama allowed the UN Security Council resolution determining Israeli settlements in occupied territories as illegal to pass. If Kamala Harris wins and Biden is free to act and if he is a courageous leader, it would be the right time for the United States to recognize the state of Palestine. Kamala Harris would inherit a new American political position, not only supporting the two-state solution but also opening an embassy for the Palestinian state in Washington and an American embassy in Jerusalem or Ramallah, wherever they want. This would change the situation. If Trump wins, God knows what will happen. The man is unpredictable.

“Both Sides are Responsible for the Gaza War”

In your opinion, who is primarily responsible for the war reaching this point? Netanyahu or Hamas?

Both sides are responsible. Of course, Hamas initiated this war with acts of brutality and terrorism inside Israel on October 7. However, since October 8, Israel has been waging a war not just against Hamas but against all Gazans. Today, 2 million Gaza residents are homeless, and tens of thousands of people, primarily innocent civilians, are dead. There is no doubt that what Hamas did on October 7 constitutes war crimes and crimes against humanity.