Gershon Baskin in an interview with the Bulgarian free-to-air television network NOVA, shares his advice which is targeted at helping leaders in the region to assess the situation without relying on assumptions.
The interview with Gershon Baskin begins at 05:25
Gershon Baskin
– Hello!
I hope one day we will meet on the show for a happier occasion, but today is not. Please explain to us what happened on Saturday night and on early Sunday.
– Several hundred missiles, drones and ballistic missiles were fired from Iran to Israel on Saturday night in response to the killing of seven Iranians at the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which is assumed to have been done by Israel. The answer comes two weeks after the assassination. United in alliance, Israel, Jordan, the United States, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, along with others, managed to shoot down nearly 99% of the Iranian missiles. A young Bedouin was seriously injured and there was minor damage to an Israeli military base. This is the amount of damage from the attack. Israel’s air defense has managed to deal with the massive attack, and we hope this will be the end of this chapter of the war between Israel and Iran at the moment.
Before entering into the details of the current conflict, I would like to clarify for our viewers why Iran hates Israel, or more precisely why the official doctrine of the Islamic Republic is to hate Israel? I do not think that all Iranians share it.
– There is no real conflict between the State of Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran. In fact, before the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, before Khomeini, who came to power in Iran, relations between Israel and Iran were very good. But in recent years, these relations have deteriorated. Israel is called little Satan, and the United States is – the big one. Iran uses the issue of Palestine and the Israeli occupation of Palestine as an excuse for its dislike of Israel. But there is no real conflict between them. Of course, Israel is part of the world’s alliance, which opposes Iran’s nuclear weapons. I’m not sure if Iran has ever decided to develop such a weapon, they have been working on their nuclear program for over 30 years and they don’t have weapons yet, but this is a major cause of discord between the two countries.
What is the mood in Israel at the moment? Netanyahu relies on time to decide what his reaction will be. Do you think there will be a counterattack?
– I think the Israeli government has decided to react, but Israel will choose when and what will happen. In my opinion, if Israel shows wisdom and thinks strategically, it will not invade Iran. The United States has warned Israel that as long as it can count on defense from the United States, if Israel wants to launch an offensive against Iran, the United States will not participate. It would be unwise for Israel to launch a military attack on Iran. I think they could respond with the cyber attack – they did it in the past and will probably continue to do so. I think Saturday night’s message was clear – that Israel is capable of defending itself against these ballistic missiles and drones sent from Iran, and this is a serious message to Iran: You don’t have to fight us like that. You can not. You will lose.
Who provokes whom? Israel attacked the Iranian consulate. Can’t it be taken as a provocation?
– It was a provocation and it was not needed, it was not strategic. It was tactical. Israel had intelligence that an important general was there, but that did not change the nature of Iran’s struggle against Israel or Israel trying to defend itself against Iran. Israel must be much wiser – to eliminate a general or some military personnel will not change the regime in Iran and will not change Iran’s hatred of Israel, it will only strengthen it. Therefore, Israel must be much wiser in the tactics it uses in the battle against Iran.
What does the current escalation mean for the Gaza War? A moment of peace for Hamas or just the opposite?
– I do not think there is a significant impact. We still don’t understand how the war will end. Hamas is still in Gaza. Hamas probably cannot control Gaza and threaten Israel as before, but it is not over and there is no final solution to the Gaza issue, which is a political issue. The government in Israel refuses to deal with it politically. The final decision on Gaza must be the same for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, that is, an end to the Israeli occupation, the creation of a Palestinian state next to Israel and international and regional commitments to ensure security for both Israelis and Palestinians – to find a way forward, so as to change the nature of the conflict as it has been for 100 years.
It looks like Netanyahu’s political career will end after the war. Does the current situation of continuation, of escalation, of greater tension help him? I ask because some ask if the provocation in Damascus was not carried out on purpose.
– It is clear that the protracted war in Gaza is prolonging the life of Netanyahu’s power in Israel. But I think society is losing patience with Netanyahu by refusing to take responsibility for what happened on and brought on until October 7. I think that society is also losing patience with the fact that 133 Israeli hostages are still in Gaza after more than 6 months of war and that the war is at a standstill – has no progress, there is no political outcome. I think we are approaching the moment when Israeli society will demand that Netanyahu call new elections or the collapse of the government. We need new leaders in Israel, just as the Palestinians need new leaders. Many countries in the region could benefit from new leaders.
And the United States? The Biden administration seems slow and cumbersome, and has failed to stop Netanyahu from destroying Gaza. Can it be an impact now?
– I think that the Americans are also losing patience with Netanyahu, despite the firm position of President Biden and the United States to defend Israel against Iran, the United States is losing patience with Israel on Gaza, on the Palestinian question as a whole. The rift between President Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu is deepening. We must not forget that Biden is in an election campaign for his own political future, and his current position in support of Israel for the Gaza War is not helping him win the election, which will take place in November.
What is the role of Saudi Arabia at the moment? It is interesting because it is not very close to Israel, but it is also a mortal enemy of Iran.
– True. Here, Saudi Arabia plays a key role as Israel’s largest incentive to move forward on the Palestinian issue, to a Palestinian state, to the end of the occupation. Israel wants normal relations with Saudi Arabia. The Americans worked very hard on the subject before October 7, and the Saudis became very firm in their position that relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel would not return to normal, until significant progress has been made on the Palestinian issue. However, Saudi Arabia backed Israel against Iran when drones and missiles flew over Saudi territory. The Saudis have reportedly worked on removing drones and missiles. It is in the interest of Saudi Arabia to defend itself. We remember a few years ago how the Iranians attacked the largest oil field in Saudi Arabia, owned by Aramko, which halved Saudi oil production with a massive drone attack. So Saudi Arabia and Iran have no warm feelings. Sometimes sharing the same enemies can make friends.
And the other countries in the region? The Emirates? Egypt is in crisis right now. Qatar, Kuwait? And most importantly, what is happening to Iraq?
– There is a clear alliance between the moderate Sunni states against Iran, which is in the favor of Israel, but again, all these moderate Sunni Arab countries want to see a solution to the Palestinian question, not only the end of the war in Gaza, but the end of the Israeli occupation of the Palestinians and the West Bank. Palestinians have a lot to do to move forward in this regard as well. They need new leaders because most moderate Sunni Arab countries do not want to work with current leaders, so Palestinians are faced with a choice.
What would a full-scale war between Israel and Tehran mean not only geopolitical, but also humanitarian?
“It would be a tragedy. We are talking about a huge country that is determined to stay at war when it is at war. If you remember the war between Iran and Iraq, which led to millions of lost lives. It would be a war that would include foreign, third countries. Maybe the United States would be involved, maybe Russia. This is something that should be avoided at all costs. It is too dangerous for our personal security, for the security of the people of Iran and for the whole region.
Mr. Baskin, I started the show with the words of Amos Oz, who says „ Never say ‚ never in the Middle East ‘. But in the end, will there ever be an end to hatred between Iran and Israel?
“Yes, I think it’s necessary. We live in an age where we have to overcome the past, look ahead, because there are so many shared interests in the region – be it purely for security and stability or economic development, or tackling the climate crisis together, we are talking about a very vulnerable region in terms of climate crisis. This is shared beyond borders. The climate crisis has no idea of borders, but it is something we must all work on together. Security of water, food, people, for everyone living here. Nobody goes anywhere. This region will remain in a demographic dimension of what it is now, with a very young population and we must think of a different future.
What is the humanitarian situation in Gaza now?
– Tragedy. A complete disaster. 2.5 million people live there, more than 2 million of them are displaced, they live in tents without enough food and water, although humanitarian aid is increasing. It is not a normal situation in which people’s homes are destroyed, and so is infrastructure. Schools and universities in Gaza need to be rebuilt. This can only happen when a responsible and legitimate leadership of Palestine comes, which can call on Arab neighbors to help create stability. This will not include Hamas ruling Gaza anymore. But the world must participate to help rebuild Gaza as soon as possible if we ever want stability and security there.
Will the Israeli forces finally destroy Rafah?
– I think and hope not. It seems that the United States is determined that Israel will not attack Rafah. There, in a very small space, 1.2, 1.3 million people are crowded and it would take weeks to evacuate, given that they have nowhere to go.
What will happen to Hamas leaders after the war? Will they continue to live comfortably in Qatar or?
– No, I think that Israel’s long arm will catch up with most of Hamas’ leaders, as has happened in the past with others who threatened Israel, be it those responsible for the Munich Massacre at the Munich Olympics, where Israeli athletes were attacked and killed. I do not know how long Hamas’ leadership will survive in Gaza underground, in tunnels. Palestinians have to deal with Hamas. They need to understand how they can create a new regime that is not committed to the destruction of Israel, but to coexistence with Israel. The Israelis must understand that the Palestinians will not go anywhere and have the right, they have the same rights that every Israeli wants for themselves – the right to security, stability, dignity, self-determination. But the Palestinians need to understand that armed conflict only leads to trouble and must adopt a different strategy for the Israelis, to face them and not want to destroy them, but to live together, with dignity and in peace.
Mr. Baskin, should the world intervene in peace in the Middle East? You know, some say that countries in the region have to be left alone and take care of themselves?
– I think that the countries in the region have, above all, a responsibility to build an architecture of stability, security, economic development and tackling the climate change crisis. But the international community must help. It is time for all countries that have not yet recognized the State of Palestine to do so, the same goes for the State of Israel. The future of Israel and Palestine is a two-state solution. The international community must help to achieve this. This assistance from outside will encourage us to change our leaders, to vote for leaders who can lead us forward to a real peace process, Palestinians and Israelis together. But we need the external international community and local, regional governments, sharing this idea of a two-state solution, to help us get to that.
In the end, how do you think the situation between Iran and Israel and Gaza will continue?
– I do not want to make predictions. I am good at giving advice and helping leaders in our country and the region to assess the situation. I’m not good at assumptions.
Thank you very much.
– Thank you!
